This is coming really late in the month. But it doesn’t really matter, because it’s based on historical results in a similar way to an almanac.
My forecast for October was positive, predicting that the TSX would end the month higher than 14,725.86. Sure enough, the market closed at the end of the month at 14,787.30. The return for the month of October was 0.42%. Not super helpful, but still positive. As a point of reference, September returned 0.88% and August 0.2%. The average monthly return for the TSX is 0.61%, which equates to 7.3% per year.
The forecast for November is positive. November has very often been positive for the stock market. I predict a 70% chance that the TSX will end the month higher than 14,787.30.
Note: I wrote that without looking at where the stock market actually is today. It’s already at 14,864.03, and I feel like I’m cheating.