My stock “forecast” for September was not successful. I predicted a 43% probability of the market finishing the month higher than it began.It rose from14,597.95 to 14,725.86, for a gain of 0.88%. It’s not much of a gain, but it was better than August, where I called 0.2% “positive.”
The forecast for October is positive. October has historically been typically positive for the stock market. It’s just that when it has been negative, it has produced significant losses. Generally, that scenario has followed a negative return over the month of September. I predict a 62% chance that the TSX will end the month higher than 14,725.86.