I’m happy with my stock “forecast” for August. I predicted a 64% probability of the market finishing the month higher than it began.It rose from 14,566.65 to 14,597.95, for a gain of 0.2%. It’s not much of a gain, and it doesn’t indicate any momentum in the stock market.

The forecast for September is negative. I predict just a 43% chance that the TSX will end the month higher than 14,597.95, meaning a 57% chance it will end lower. And if it does, it will likely be a pullback of 5%.

Stock return forecast for September

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