Oops, I’m a couple days late. I’m happy with my stock “forecast” for July. I predicted a 62% of the market finishing the month higher than it began. It rose from 14,064.54 to 14,566.65, for a gain of 3.68%. I realize that my method is an almanac-style forecast, with results are satisfactory if not entirely helpful. I can’t imagine it’s much use to realize that there’s a good chance of losing money (or a relatively small chance of making money) one month and buying or selling your investments based on that. Such a strategy would be expensive and prone to error.

Having said that, the forecast for August is positive. I’ll predict about a 64% likelihood that the TSX will end the month higher than 14,566.65. And I don’t like the look of September.

 

Stock return forecast for August

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