Stocks are up over 1% since last week. Conversely, bonds are down almost 1%. This is good news for the stock market, but it’s too soon to really get excited — the TSX is 1.9% lower than it was a year ago. A more realistic way to look at it is that bonds are doing poorly and stocks are doing less poorly, since neither are actually doing well. A balanced portfolio should be neither over- nor underweight.

Comparing asset classes is interesting, but not cheerful. Only US small caps (IWM) present any real positive momentum, and even that is muted. There are no obvious opportunities at the moment.

Some individual stocks may hold promise. In Canada, VRX and CCT are still the clear leaders among the TSX 60, although SunLife (SLF) now looks good. In the US, I believe I already mentioned Lilly, Gilead, Amazon and Nike. They are now joined (and surpassed) by Williams Companies (WMB), a company that provides energy infrastructure. I would treat that one with caution, given a recent spike in price that coincided with a huge increase in buys. The trend is not obviously positive.

Market Outlook June 29, 2015

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