The past week has changed nothing. Stocks didn’t advance, but they still look better than bonds. I still own MG, and it looks like it’s doing better than any asset class. My model works by following the smart money, or the fast money, but all the “money” is on vacation right now.

Enjoy the summer while it lasts. September and October are just around the corner, and they have on average (which is meaningless outside the realm of Gaussian statistics) been terrible for stock markets. It may just be superstition, but at some point, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. I plan to continue to own stocks through the coming months, but mostly to save transaction costs.

Earnings season is upon us, and companies appear to have experienced a fairly successful quarter. The economy and the stock market haven’t yet recovered to pre-2008 levels, but we seem to have accepted that and to be ready to celebrate any positive news.

Market Outlook August 12, 2013

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